Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 15/0011Z from Region 2342 (N17W22). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 May, 17 May, 18 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 639 km/s at 14/2136Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8787 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (16 May, 18 May) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (17 May).
III. Event probabilities 16 May-18 May
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 May 137
Predicted 16 May-18 May 135/125/115
90 Day Mean 15 May 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 May 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May 010/010-016/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May-18 May
