Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 May 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
15/0256Z from Region 2058 (S11W17). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 May, 17 May,
18 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 364 km/s at
14/2255Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 15/2035Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 15/1454Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 250 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (16 May) and quiet levels
on days two and three (17 May, 18 May).

III. Event probabilities 16 May-18 May
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 May 152
Predicted 16 May-18 May 155/150/145
90 Day Mean 15 May 150

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 May 008/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May 006/007-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May-18 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 30/15/15
Major-severe storm 15/05/05