Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 March 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 74 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 15/1239Z from Region 2965 (N24W17). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Mar, 17 Mar, 18 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 446 km/s at 15/0640Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 14/2109Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 15/1522Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 234 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (16 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (17 Mar, 18 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Mar 110
Predicted 16 Mar-18 Mar 110/108/108
90 Day Mean 15 Mar 111

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar 013/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar 005/005-006/008-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/30/30
Minor Storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/30
Major-severe storm 20/35/40