Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 March 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 74 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Mar, 17 Mar, 18 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 573 km/s at 15/0108Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 15/0309Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 14/2116Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2991 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (16 Mar, 17 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (18 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Mar 075
Predicted 16 Mar-18 Mar 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 15 Mar 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar 017/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar 006/005-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/25
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 10/10/30