- Press Release
- August 15, 2022
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 March 2018
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 74 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Mar, 17 Mar, 18 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 533 km/s at 15/1657Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 14/2204Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 14/2252Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 309 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (16 Mar, 17 Mar, 18 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Mar 069
Predicted 16 Mar-18 Mar 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 15 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar 015/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar 012/015-013/015-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 15/15/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 40/40/45