Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 March 2018

By SpaceRef Editor
March 15, 2018
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 74 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Mar, 17 Mar, 18 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 533 km/s at 15/1657Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 14/2204Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 14/2252Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 309 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (16 Mar, 17 Mar, 18 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Mar 069
Predicted   16 Mar-18 Mar 069/069/069
90 Day Mean        15 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar  015/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar  012/015-013/015-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor Storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    40/40/45

SpaceRef staff editor.