Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 March 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 74 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Mar, 17 Mar, 18 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 407 km/s at 15/2037Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 15/1114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 15/1047Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5795 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (16 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (17 Mar, 18 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Mar 070
Predicted   16 Mar-18 Mar 070/071/072
90 Day Mean        15 Mar 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar  006/005-009/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/10/10
Minor Storm           01/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/15
Major-severe storm    10/15/10