Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 March 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 75 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 15/0929Z from Region 2521 (N19W21). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Mar, 17 Mar, 18 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 637 km/s at 15/0347Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 14/2209Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 14/2210Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 203 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (16 Mar), quiet to active levels on day two (17 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (18 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Mar 094
Predicted 16 Mar-18 Mar 090/095/095
90 Day Mean 15 Mar 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar 011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar 021/027
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar 015/022-012/016-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/20
Minor Storm 25/15/05
Major-severe storm 15/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 20/25/30
Major-severe storm 60/45/25