Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 74 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 15/0940Z from Region 2297 (S18W36). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Mar, 17 Mar, 18 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 352 km/s at 15/0448Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 15/1727Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 15/1426Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at 15/0930Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (16 Mar), quiet to active levels on day two (17 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (18 Mar). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (16 Mar), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (17 Mar) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (18 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 20/20/20
Proton 30/35/40
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Mar 114
Predicted 16 Mar-18 Mar 115/112/110
90 Day Mean 15 Mar 139
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar 008/008-012/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
