Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 March 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 74 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
15/1715Z from Region 2003 (N05W78). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(16 Mar, 17 Mar, 18 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 443 km/s at
15/0134Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/2102Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 15/0134Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (16 Mar, 17 Mar)
and quiet levels on day three (18 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Mar 139
Predicted 16 Mar-18 Mar 135/135/135
90 Day Mean 15 Mar 158

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar 002/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar 009/008-008/008-006/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/15/05