Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 March 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 74 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
15/0658Z from Region 1692 (N09W03). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Mar,
17 Mar, 18 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
517 km/s at 15/0500Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 15/0719Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 15/0619Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Mar), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (17 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day
three (18 Mar). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (16 Mar, 17 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 15/15/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Mar 123
Predicted 16 Mar-18 Mar 120/120/115
90 Day Mean 15 Mar 116

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar 008/015-028/037-014/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/30
Minor Storm 20/35/10
Major-severe storm 05/20/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/05/15
Minor Storm 15/20/30
Major-severe storm 10/70/40