Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 June 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 15/0440Z from Region 3036 (S12W69). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (16 Jun, 17 Jun) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (18 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 624 km/s at 15/0556Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 15/0443Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 15/0443Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 240 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (17 Jun, 18 Jun). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (16 Jun, 17 Jun, 18 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
Class M 25/25/20
Class X 10/10/05
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jun 140
Predicted 16 Jun-18 Jun 140/138/138
90 Day Mean 15 Jun 127

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun 010/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun 015/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 011/014-008/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/20
Minor Storm 15/05/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 50/30/25