Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 June 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Jun, 17 Jun, 18 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 633 km/s at 15/1646Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 15/1214Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 15/1208Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 255 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Jun), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (17 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (18 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jun 076
Predicted 16 Jun-18 Jun 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 15 Jun 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun 007/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 015/020-015/018-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/45/35
Minor Storm 25/25/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 60/60/45