Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 June 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Jun, 17 Jun, 18 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 377 km/s at 15/1101Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 15/0256Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 5/0819Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 145 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (16 Jun, 17 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (18 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jun 070
Predicted 16 Jun-18 Jun 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 15 Jun 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 008/008-009/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 25/30/20