Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 June 2019

By SpaceRef Editor
June 15, 2019
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Jun, 17 Jun, 18 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 435 km/s at 14/2103Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 15/1025Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 15/1026Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (16 Jun) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (17 Jun, 18 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jun 067
Predicted   16 Jun-18 Jun 067/067/067
90 Day Mean        15 Jun 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun  013/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun  007/008-010/012-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/25
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/25/25

SpaceRef staff editor.