Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 June 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Jun, 17 Jun, 18 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 346 km/s at 15/1446Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 15/0850Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 15/1351Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 465 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (16 Jun, 17 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (18 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jun 071
Predicted   16 Jun-18 Jun 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        15 Jun 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun  007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun  005/005-005/005-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    10/10/25