Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 June 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Jun, 17 Jun, 18 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 495 km/s at 15/0152Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 14/2316Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 15/1218Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 113 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (16 Jun), quiet to active levels on day two (17 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (18 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jun 077
Predicted   16 Jun-18 Jun 077/077/077
90 Day Mean        15 Jun 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun  017/025-011/012-011/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/25/15
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    20/15/05