Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 June 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Jun, 17 Jun, 18 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 772 km/s at 15/0410Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 14/2119Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 14/2145Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 215 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Jun), quiet to active levels on day two (17 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (18 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jun 087
Predicted 16 Jun-18 Jun 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 15 Jun 091

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun 015/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun 013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 014/018-011/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/15
Minor Storm 20/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 55/35/20