Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 15/1032Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day one (16 Jun) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (17 Jun, 18 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 633 km/s at 15/0126Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 14/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 15/1700Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3307 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Jun), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (17 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (18 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
Class M 30/20/15
Class X 05/01/01
Proton 05/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jun 135
Predicted 16 Jun-18 Jun 130/125/120
90 Day Mean 15 Jun 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun 019/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun 015/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 014/018-009/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
