Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 June 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
15/0400Z from Region 1774 (S18E58). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one and two (16 Jun, 17 Jun) and expected to be very low with a chance
for a C-class flares on day three (18 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 478 km/s at
15/2057Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 15/0626Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 15/0610Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 885 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (16 Jun, 18 Jun) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (17 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
Class M 05/05/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jun 111
Predicted 16 Jun-18 Jun 110/110/105
90 Day Mean 15 Jun 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 005/005-006/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun-18 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 15/20/20