Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 July 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Jul, 17 Jul, 18 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 486 km/s at 15/1305Z. Total IMF reached 9nT at 15/1153Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 15/1613Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 153 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (16 Jul) and quiet levels on days two and three (17 Jul, 18 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jul 074
Predicted 16 Jul-18 Jul 074/076/074
90 Day Mean 15 Jul 078

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul 010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jul 009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul 010/010-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/10/10