Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 July 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Jul, 17 Jul, 18 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 437 km/s at 15/1551Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 15/1203Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 15/1338Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 186 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (16 Jul, 17 Jul, 18 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jul 068
Predicted 16 Jul-18 Jul 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 15 Jul 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul 009/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jul 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10