Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 July 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Jul, 17 Jul, 18 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 477 km/s at 14/2115Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 161 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (16 Jul) and quiet levels on days two and three (17 Jul, 18 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           15 Jul 072

Predicted   16 Jul-18 Jul 072/072/072

90 Day Mean        15 Jul 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul  004/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jul  005/006

Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                10/10/10

Minor Storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           25/20/20

Major-severe storm    20/15/15