Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 July 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
15/0305Z from Region 2109 (S08, L=221). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Jul,
17 Jul, 18 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 525 km/s at
15/1126Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 14/2100Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -9 nT at 15/0547Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (16 Jul, 17 Jul)
and quiet levels on day three (18 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jul 101
Predicted 16 Jul-18 Jul 100/100/095
90 Day Mean 15 Jul 135

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul 010/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jul 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul 008/008-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/05
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/15/10