Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 July 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
15/1055Z from Region 1791 (S14E04). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Jul, 17 Jul,
18 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 433 km/s at 15/1151Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 14/2255Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 14/2248Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1066
pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (16 Jul, 17 Jul)
and unsettled to active levels on day three (18 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jul 114
Predicted 16 Jul-18 Jul 115/115/120
90 Day Mean 15 Jul 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul 015/027
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jul 021/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul 009/008-009/010-011/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/35
Minor Storm 05/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/10
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 20/25/50