Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 January 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 15 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan, 18 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 324 km/s at 14/2109Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/2121Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 15/1814Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 223 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (16 Jan), quiet to active levels on day two (17 Jan) and unsettled levels on day three (18 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jan 073
Predicted 16 Jan-18 Jan 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 15 Jan 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan 005/005-009/010-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/25/35
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/30/40