Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 January 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 15 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan, 18 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 353 km/s at 15/0222Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 15/1958Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 15/0730Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 581 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan, 18 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jan 071
Predicted 16 Jan-18 Jan 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 15 Jan 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan 005/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/20