Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 January 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 15 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan, 18 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 526 km/s at 14/2152Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 14/2334Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 14/2347Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 111 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan, 18 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jan 070
Predicted   16 Jan-18 Jan 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        15 Jan 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan  011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan  006/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10