Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 January 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 15 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 15/0239Z from Region 2480 (N04W52). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan, 18 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 497 km/s at 14/2302Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2577 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (16 Jan, 17 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (18 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jan 104
Predicted 16 Jan-18 Jan 105/110/110
90 Day Mean 15 Jan 111

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan 006/005-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 20/20/25