Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 January 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
January 15, 2015
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 January 2015

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 15 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2015

 

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 14/2324Z from Region 2257 (N07W93). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

 

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan, 18 Jan).

 

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 478 km/s at 15/0520Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 15/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 15/1252Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 147 pfu.

 

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (16 Jan, 17 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (18 Jan).

 

III.  Event probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan

Class M    25/25/25

Class X    05/05/05

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

 

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           15 Jan 131

Predicted   16 Jan-18 Jan 130/125/125

90 Day Mean        15 Jan 160

 

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan  005/005

Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan  007/009

Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan  011/010-008/010-010/015

 

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                30/20/35

Minor Storm           10/05/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           25/25/30

Major-severe storm    40/30/45

SpaceRef staff editor.