Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 15 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 14/2324Z from Region 2257 (N07W93). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan, 18 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 478 km/s at 15/0520Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 15/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 15/1252Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 147 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (16 Jan, 17 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (18 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jan 131
Predicted 16 Jan-18 Jan 130/125/125
90 Day Mean 15 Jan 160
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan 007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan 011/010-008/010-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan-18 Jan