Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 February 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 46 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb, 18 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 505 km/s at 15/0854Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 983 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb, 18 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Feb 071
Predicted   16 Feb-18 Feb 071/071/071
90 Day Mean        15 Feb 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb  008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           20/15/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10