Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 February 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 46 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb, 18 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 315 km/s at 15/2013Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 15/2043Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 15/1730Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1016 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (16 Feb, 18 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day two (17 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Feb 075
Predicted   16 Feb-18 Feb 075/075/074
90 Day Mean        15 Feb 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb  001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb  010/010-011/012-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/20
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    35/45/20