Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 February 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 46 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M1 event observed at 15/1100Z from Region 2497 (N12W62). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb, 18 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 449 km/s at 15/1848Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 15/0509Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 15/2043Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 114 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 Feb), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (17 Feb) and unsettled to active levels on day three (18 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb, 18 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 15/15/15
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Feb 107
Predicted 16 Feb-18 Feb 108/105/100
90 Day Mean 15 Feb 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb 013/014-017/022-014/014

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/40/30
Minor Storm 10/20/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 40/55/40