Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 February 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
February 15, 2015
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 February 2015

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 46 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2015

 

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

 

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb, 18 Feb).

 

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 386 km/s at 15/1742Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 15/1336Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 15/0821Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 316 pfu.

 

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (17 Feb, 18 Feb).

 

III.  Event probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb

Class M    25/25/25

Class X    05/05/05

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

 

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           15 Feb 120

Predicted   16 Feb-18 Feb 125/130/130

90 Day Mean        15 Feb 151

 

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb  002/002

Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb  007/010

Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb  012/012-009/010-007/008

 

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                35/30/15

Minor Storm           10/10/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/20

Minor Storm           30/30/25

Major-severe storm    45/40/20

 

SpaceRef staff editor.