Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 46 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb, 18 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 386 km/s at 15/1742Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 15/1336Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 15/0821Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 316 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (17 Feb, 18 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Feb 120
Predicted 16 Feb-18 Feb 125/130/130
90 Day Mean 15 Feb 151
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb 007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb 012/012-009/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb