Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 December 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Oct, 17 Oct, 18 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 379 km/s at 15/0812Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 15/1850Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 15/1659Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 288 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (16 Oct, 17 Oct, 18 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Oct 067
Predicted 16 Oct-18 Oct 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 15 Oct 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct 006/005-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct-18 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 05/10/10