Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 December 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Dec, 17 Dec, 18 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 382 km/s at 15/1403Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1880 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (16 Dec, 17 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (18 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Dec 071
Predicted   16 Dec-18 Dec 071/071/071
90 Day Mean        15 Dec 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec  003/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec  002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec  008/008-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           30/30/15
Major-severe storm    25/25/15