Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 December 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Dec, 17 Dec, 18 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 390 km/s at 14/2104Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 15/1414Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 15/0738Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 276 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (16 Dec), quiet to active levels on day two (17 Dec) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (18 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Dec 072
Predicted   16 Dec-18 Dec 072/072/074
90 Day Mean        15 Dec 075

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec  006/005-010/012-019/026

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/25/40
Minor Storm           01/10/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           15/30/25
Major-severe storm    10/35/55