Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 December 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
15/0913Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Dec, 17 Dec,
18 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
607 km/s at 14/2114Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 14/2137Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 15/0723Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (16 Dec, 17 Dec, 18
Dec).

III. Event probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
Class M 25/25/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Dec 156
Predicted 16 Dec-18 Dec 150/150/155
90 Day Mean 15 Dec 138

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec 010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec 005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05