Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 August 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug, 18 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 510 km/s at 14/2240Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 15/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 15/1014Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5234 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (16 Aug) and quiet levels on days two and three (17 Aug, 18 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Aug 067
Predicted 16 Aug-18 Aug 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 15 Aug 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 007/008-005/005-006/006

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/05/10