Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 August 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug, 18 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 497 km/s at 15/1450Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 15/1840Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 15/1053Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 Aug), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (17 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (18 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Aug 069
Predicted   16 Aug-18 Aug 069/069/069
90 Day Mean        15 Aug 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug  006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug  013/015-010/010-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/10
Minor Storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    50/25/10