Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 August 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 14/2210Z from Region 2671 (N11E73). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug, 18 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 477 km/s at 15/0052Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1335 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 Aug), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (17 Aug) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (18 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Aug 074
Predicted   16 Aug-18 Aug 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        15 Aug 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug  013/016-019/026-016/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/35
Minor Storm           15/30/25
Major-severe storm    05/15/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/05/10
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    55/70/65