Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 August 2016

By SpaceRef Editor
August 15, 2016
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 15/0023Z from Region 2578 (N08E61). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug, 18 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 411 km/s at 14/2128Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 15/1426Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 15/0712Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9574 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (17 Aug, 18 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Aug 088
Predicted 16 Aug-18 Aug 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 15 Aug 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 012/016-009/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/20
Minor Storm 25/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/15
Major-severe storm 20/40/05

SpaceRef staff editor.