Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 August 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
15/1200Z from Region 2139 (N13E14). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug, 18 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 379 km/s at
15/0436Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 151 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (16 Aug) and quiet levels
on days two and three (17 Aug, 18 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Aug 113
Predicted 16 Aug-18 Aug 115/115/115
90 Day Mean 15 Aug 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 007/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/10/10
Major-severe storm 15/05/05