Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 August 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
15/1756Z from Region 1818 (S07W07). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug,
18 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
628 km/s at 15/2048Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 15/1153Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 15/1524Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 Aug), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (17 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (18 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Aug 123
Predicted 16 Aug-18 Aug 125/130/130
90 Day Mean 15 Aug 114

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug 009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug 011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 010/010-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/05
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/15
Major-severe storm 25/25/10