Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 April 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Apr, 17 Apr, 18 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 364 km/s at 15/0816Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 15/1809Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 15/0644Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4149 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (16 Apr, 17 Apr, 18 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Apr 075
Predicted   16 Apr-18 Apr 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        15 Apr 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Apr  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20