Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 April 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Apr, 17 Apr, 18 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 567 km/s at 15/2026Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 15/0840Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 14/2342Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8310 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (16 Apr, 17 Apr, 18 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Apr 071
Predicted   16 Apr-18 Apr 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        15 Apr 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Apr  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10