Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 April 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 15/1430Z from Region 2529 (N10W24). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Apr, 17 Apr, 18 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 434 km/s at 14/2215Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 15/2029Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 15/0019Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2538 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (16 Apr, 17 Apr, 18 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Apr 112
Predicted 16 Apr-18 Apr 111/111/108
90 Day Mean 15 Apr 099

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr 014/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Apr 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr 007/008-007/008-006/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 25/25/25