Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 April 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
April 15, 2015
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 April 2015

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2015

********** CORRECTED COPY **********

 

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. Region 2321 (N14E23, Ekc/beta-gamma) produced the largest flare of the period, a C7/2n at 15/2023 UTC.  There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

 

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (16 Apr) and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days two and three (17 Apr, 18 Apr).

 

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 665 km/s at 15/1556Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 15/0503Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 15/0821Z.

 

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Apr) and quiet levels on days two and three (17 Apr, 18 Apr).

 

III.  Event probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr

Class M    40/55/55

Class X    10/20/20

Proton     01/05/05

PCAF       green

 

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           15 Apr 155

Predicted   16 Apr-18 Apr 160/160/165

90 Day Mean        15 Apr 129

 

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr  009/012

Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Apr  017/022

Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr  012/015-007/008-007/008

 

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                35/20/15

Minor Storm           15/05/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/20/15

Minor Storm           30/25/25

Major-severe storm    45/25/20

SpaceRef staff editor.