Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 April 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
15/0923Z from Region 2035 (S19E26). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Apr, 17 Apr,
18 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
386 km/s at 15/0148Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 238 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (16 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (17 Apr, 18 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Apr 162
Predicted 16 Apr-18 Apr 165/165/165
90 Day Mean 15 Apr 154

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Apr 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr 006/005-007/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/20/20
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/25/25
Major-severe storm 05/25/25