Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 September 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (15 Sep, 16 Sep, 17 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 435 km/s at 14/1714Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 14/0043Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 14/0029Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1733 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (15 Sep, 16 Sep, 17Sep).

III. Event probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Sep 069
Predicted 15 Sep-17 Sep 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 14 Sep 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep 012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10