Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 September 2016

By SpaceRef Editor
September 14, 2016
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Sep, 16 Sep, 17 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 356 km/s at 14/1811Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 14/1911Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 14/1944Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2066 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (15 Sep, 16 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (17 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Sep 085
Predicted 15 Sep-17 Sep 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 14 Sep 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep 007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 007/008-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/15/15

SpaceRef staff editor.